Numinous is a forecasting protocol whose goal is to aggregate agents into superhuman LLM forecasters.
Neuron registration trends
The alpha price in τ, day by day, and what moved it each way.
Log change over the last 30 days −6.93%: protocol buys 0.00%, root sells −0.39%, users net −7.39%, cross-subnet +0.85%, unattributed −0.000000000000000000035%.
The chart follows the alpha price in τ. Each period starts at its opening price and steps through the mechanisms below, in a fixed order, to its closing price: a step that rises pushed the price up, one that falls pushed it down, and its height is how far it moved the price. A thin line carries each close into the next period’s open; it is dashed where the two differ. The faint candle behind each period is the market’s own open, high, low and close, for context.
With many periods on screen (90 days, or hours), the steps would be too thin to read, so the chart draws the price as a line instead and colours each period by the mechanism that moved it most. Hover a period for the full step-by-step breakdown.
Not here, because they do not move the spot price: the per-block TAO injection into the pool, and burns.
All figures are log changes, not simple percentage changes, so the parts add up exactly to the total; on big moves the two differ (a 10% log fall is a 9.5% price fall).
2026-11-09 UTC, as of ≈19:41 UTC (block 9,470,796)
The day isn’t over yet, so these figures keep changing. They are in no daily total, average or rank.
Forecasting future corporate relationships—acquisitions, partnerships, investments, supply agreements—at scale requires aggregating research across thousands of entities while ensuring predictions are both rigorous and verifiable. Traditional centralized approaches struggle with timeliness, reproducibility, and incentive alignment between forecasters and validators. A decentralized network of contributors can submit sealed predictions, have them judged against public news events by independent validators, and earn credits based on a transparent, fixed-formula scoring system that all validators compute identically from the same data.
Numinous implements this by building a knowledge graph of companies and relationships from news, publishing daily questions about entities, and accepting sealed forecasts from miners until a deadline. After the deadline, forecasts are time-locked decrypted and judged against news reported between the deadline and a defined horizon.
Validators independently verify each forecast against its cryptographic hash and miner signature, compute credits daily using a deterministic formula counting correct statements from the past 30 days, and set weights on-chain via Bittensor's Subtensor at a synchronized time (16:00 UTC) so all validators switch together.
The system ensures forecasts cannot be edited after submission, prevents validators from manipulating scores, and makes de-duplication automatic—a news event pays a miner only once, across all forecasts, avoiding double-counting.
Auto-generated from the GitHub repository and may not reflect the latest changes.
Numinous is a graph forecasting subnet on Bittensor where miners predict future relationships between companies by forecasting additions to a knowledge graph built from news. Miners submit sealed forecasts about company interactions (acquisitions, partnerships, investments, etc.), which are judged against news reported after the deadline, and earn credits based on correct predictions scored by validators using a fixed formula.
Miners use the numi CLI to read the open round and knowledge graph from the Numinous backend, then seal and sign forecasts with their hotkey before the deadline. Sealed forecasts are time-locked encrypted until the deadline passes. After the deadline, the backend opens forecasts and checks them against the schema.
The judge then evaluates each statement against news reported after the deadline until the horizon end. Validators pull rounds, hashes, and results from the backend; verify forecasts match their stored hashes and miner signatures; compute credits daily at 15:00 UTC from statements judged correct in the last 30 days using a fixed formula; and post scores to the backend and set weights on-chain via Bittensor's Subtensor at 16:00 UTC. All communication is signed HTTPS; scoring is deterministic and reproducible.
A statement is judged correct when news reported after the question's deadline confirms the forecasted relationship occurred. The topological condition requires each statement to name the entity and counterparty from the question. De-duplication ensures a single news event pays only once: if multiple statements from the same miner reference the same event, only the earliest forecast counts.
Credits = Σ_q Σ_(p ∈ Q_q) s(P_p) × 1(t − l_p < 30 days) × (1/√#Q_q), where s(P_p) is 1 if correct, 0 otherwise; l_p is judgment time; t is scoring time; #Q_q is statements per bundle.
The sections above were auto-generated from the GitHub repository and may not reflect the latest changes. View repository (github.com, opens in a new tab, external site)
Numinous is a forecasting protocol whose goal is to aggregate agents into superhuman LLM forecasters.
This information was auto-extracted from the GitHub repository and may be incomplete or out of date. Always refer to the subnet's GitHub repository (github.com, opens in a new tab, external site) for the latest instructions.
Python 3.11+, Bittensor wallet with hotkey registered on subnet
Not yet verified: GPU, RAM, Storage, CPU cores, Notes
Machine-extracted from the subnet's repository docs; may be wrong or out of date. Check the repository before buying or renting hardware. Open the repository (github.com, opens in a new tab, external site) · Extracted 2 Nov 2026
Clone repository and install numi CLI tool
git clone https://github.com/numinouslabs/numinous.git && cd numinous && pip install -e .
Create Bittensor coldkey and hotkey
btcli wallet new-coldkey --wallet miner && btcli wallet new-hotkey --wallet miner --wallet-hotkey default
Register hotkey on testnet (or netuid 6 for mainnet)
btcli subnet register --netuid 155 --wallet miner --wallet-hotkey default --network test
Set environment variables pointing numi to your wallet
export NUMINOUS_WALLET=miner && export NUMINOUS_HOTKEY=default && export NUMINOUS_ENV=test
Read the open round and available questions
numi round
Research what the knowledge graph already knows
numi entities --name nvidia && numi graph --entity <entity_id>
Validate forecast JSON against schema
numi validate forecast.json
Seal, sign and send forecast before deadline
numi submit --question <question_id> forecast.json
Monitor forecast status and judging results
numi forecasts && numi forecasts --changed-since 2026-10-20T00:00:00Z
Install Docker, Docker Compose, and dependencies on Ubuntu/Debian
sudo apt-get update && sudo apt-get install -y docker.io docker-compose-plugin git python3 python3-pip
Install Bittensor CLI
pip3 install bittensor
Clone the Numinous repository
git clone https://github.com/numinouslabs/numinous.git && cd numinous
Create validator wallet (coldkey and hotkey)
btcli wallet new-coldkey --wallet validator && btcli wallet new-hotkey --wallet validator --wallet-hotkey default
Register validator on testnet (or netuid 6 for mainnet)
btcli subnet register --netuid 155 --wallet validator --wallet-hotkey default --network test
Create and configure .env.validator with wallet credentials
cp .env.validator.example .env.validator && echo 'WALLET_NAME=validator' >> .env.validator && echo 'WALLET_HOTKEY=default' >> .env.validator
Pull latest validator Docker image
docker compose -f docker-compose.validator.yaml --env-file .env.validator pull
Start validator in daemon mode
docker compose -f docker-compose.validator.yaml --env-file .env.validator up -d
Monitor validator logs to verify startup and operation
docker logs -f numinous_validator
| Day (UTC) | Share |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-07 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-06 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-05 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-04 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-03 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-02 | 0.01% |
| 2026-11-01 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-31 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-30 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-29 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-28 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-27 | 0.0011% |
| 2026-10-26 | 0.00% |
| 2026-10-25 | 0.00% |
| 2026-10-24 | 0.00% |
| 2026-10-23 | 0.00% |
| 2026-10-22 | 0.0044% |
| 2026-10-21 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-20 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-19 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.01% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.01% |
| 2026-09-06 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.02% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-31 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-30 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-29 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-27 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-25 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-24 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-23 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-15 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-14 | 0.02% |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.03% |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.03% |
| 2026-08-11 | 0.03% |
